While national celebrity Punxsutawney Phil predicted six more weeks of winter, local groundhog Chesapeake Chuck did not see his shadow and predicted an earlier spring for Hampton Roads! It certainly looks and feels like Chuck was correct. From a real estate perspective, there has been a lot of doom and gloom at the national level about the real estate market, much like Phil’s prediction for the weather. Unfortunately, we don’t have a groundhog to help with local real estate market predictions, but if we did we might be more like Chuck – ready spring and not so much doom and gloom. The year over year numbers from the Real Estate Information Network (REIN, our local MLS) show 35% fewer homes closed in January 2023 than in January 2022, however don’t let number fool you. We agree that the local and national real estate market is slowing down to some extent, but the median sales price is up 4% in our area and, while there are fewer for homes that have sold recently, Hampton Roads is still in a seller’s market. We are with Chuck – our market is closer to spring than it is to the doom and gloom of winter.
Locally, the average amount of days before a house goes under contract was 27 in January 2023. That is the highest days on market in over two years, but 27 days is still faster than normal. As we have written about before, the most important statistic in market evaluation is supply and demand, which is measured by the month’s supply of inventory. The month’s supply was only 1.27 last month, and in a completely balanced market the month’s supply should be between 5 and 7. This is strong evidence to support our belief that we are still in a seller’s market in Hampton Roads. The total number of homes sold will almost certainly be lower in 2023, but we don’t see major changes in the median sales prices. Taking all this into account, as buyers get accustomed to the higher interest rates and inventory stays low, we think this spring is the time to sell if you have been on the fence. Every situation is different, so give us a call (757-726-7653 for Lee, 757-434-9084 for Harry) or reply back to this email, and we will be happy to talk through your individual situation.
Exhibit of Excellence: Suffolk Student Art 2023
The Suffolk Art League in cooperation with the Suffolk Fine Arts Commission cordially invites you to attend the Exhibit of Excellence: Suffolk Student Art 2023, on display at the Suffolk Art Gallery from January 31 through February 24. An Awards Presentation will take place Tuesday, January 31, 2023, from 11:30am-12:30pm at the Suffolk Art Gallery.
The Suffolk Art League will hold its 39th Annual Antique Show and Sale at Kings Fork Middle School on February 25-26, 2023. Admission is $7 per person; the show is open Saturday, 10am-5pm, and Sunday, 12-4pm.
The Suffolk Center invites you to join them on Saturday evening, February 25, 2023 for their annual SCCA fundraiser, Cheers to 100 Years: A Gala To Remember, a celebration of Education, History, an Arts! Be a part of this unforgettable event!
34th Annual Young Artists and Authors Showcase: “Peace By Piece: Food Security In My Community”
Suffolk Sister Cities International sponsors an annual Young Artists and Authors Showcase that help foster a sense of global citizenship and goodwill for young students. This year’s theme is “Peace by Piece: Food Security In My Community.” The persistent food-security struggle is a concern that all communities face.
Join the Suffolk Art Gallery as they host the 39th Annual Juried Photography Exhibit, the largest and oldest juried photography exhibit in Hampton Roads. The artwork of professional and amateur photographers will be on display March 4 through April 14, 2023, from 10am to 5pm, Tuesdays through Saturdays, and 1-5pm on Sundays.
ICONS is a tribute show packed with number 1 hits of some of the greatest women from the 60’s all the way to today. This show will keep you enthralled and have you dancing in your seats, as we celeb…
Join us for the Annual Mystery Authors Festival on Saturday, March 11, 2023, from 1-6pm, at the Suffolk Conference Center at the Hilton Garden Inn Suffolk Riverfront. This one-day festival will showcase 50 best-selling mystery, thriller/suspense, horror, paranormal, science fiction, historical, romance, and women’s fiction authors.
The popular “Storytime at the Station” series has returned to the Seaboard Station Railroad Museum! Ideal for children ages three to seven, this interactive program features a different transportation-themed book each month, which will be read aloud, followed by the opportunity to explore the museum (children must be accompanied by a parent or guardian).
Hailed as the “First Lady of the Civil Rights movement,” Coretta Scott King comes to life in this moving performance by Valerie Davis. From her marriage to Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., to her life dedicated to political activism, Coretta was an American legend at the forefront of the fight for human rights.
A British Invasion at the Center: Bohemian Rhapsody
Join Suffolk Tourism, in partnership with the Suffolk Center for Cultural Arts, as they proudly present A British Invasion at the Center, three British-themed blockbuster movies that enjoyed great success in cinemas. The series concludes on Thursday, March 16, 2023, when Bohemian Rhapsody comes to the big screen.
Dive into the big blue world of Disney and Pixar’s FINDING NEMO, JR. This new stage adaptation of the beloved movie Finding Nemo follows Nemo and all his friends-including Dory, Crush, Marlin, and the Tank-helping Nemo tackle his challenges on his journey.
Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” and physicist Neils Bohr said, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!” So there is a solid consensus that predicting the future is not for the weak of heart. In January, however, we are often asked what we think the real estate market is going to do in the coming year. Going against the advice of both Yogi Berra and Neils Bohr, we are going to make our predictions for 2023 and invite you to join us with your own predictions.
With respect to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, authors of This Time is Different, we believe that the current market situation is different from the real estate crash of 2008 (the book is long, but a good read for investors). We feel this way for several reasons. The mortgage underwriting for buyers has been and continues to be much more consistent and, thankfully, the stated income “liar loans” have not come back. The months’ supply of inventory is still close to historical lows at 1.27 months. Remember an average months’ supply is five to seven months, and real estate just like any other market is all about supply and demand. So while we think the number of settled sales will be lower in 2023 than it was in 2022, don’t expect the median sales price to change much.
Now it is your turn. Reply back to this email with your prediction of what the median sales price and number of settled sales will be for 2023. We will make a $100 donation in your honor to the charity of your choice for the guesses closest to each of the numbers. We think that this chart, courtesy of the Real Estate Information Network (REIN), will be helpful in your efforts to answer the trivia question and have a frame of reference for our predictions. It shows the number of settled sales (homes sold), along with the median sale price, and the household income from 1997-2022.
Every situation is different, so give us a call (757-726-7653 for Lee, 757-434-9084 for Harry) or reply back to this email, and we will be happy to talk through your individual situation. Don’t forget to email us back with your guess for the 2023 median sale price and the total number of sales.
The Suffolk Center for Cultural Arts offers a variety of art classes throughout the year. This exhibit, SHINE, highlights the work completed by students in these classes along with that of their instructors. The exhibit will also feature artwork by some of the SCCA administrative staff.
The Suffolk Art League in cooperation with the Suffolk Fine Arts Commission cordially invites you to attend the Exhibit of Excellence: Suffolk Student Art 2023, on display at the Suffolk Art Gallery from January 31 through February 24. An Awards Presentation will take place Tuesday, January 31, 2023, from 11:30am-12:30pm at the Suffolk Art Gallery.
Join the Suffolk Art Gallery, the Suffolk Art League, and host Nathan Richardson for this spoken word event. Poets, writers, musicians, spoken word, and more are welcome. Present your own original works or favorites by others. Not a writer or musician?
Put on your best ’20s attire and chassé down to the Harlem Nights Jazz Social, on Saturday, February 4, 2023! Hosted by Suffolk Public Library, in partnership with Suffolk Art League, meet us at 6:30pm at the Suffolk Art Gallery for an event highlighting important figures from the Harlem Renaissance.
Suffolk Parks and Recreation is excited to invite all active adults ages 55+ to the Annual Sweetheart’s Ball! This event will be held on Wednesday, February 8, from 10am to 1pm, at the Curtis R. Milteer Sr. Recreation Center. The cost of the event is $10 per person.
Join Suffolk Tourism, in partnership with the Suffolk Center for Cultural Arts, as they proudly present A British Invasion at the Center, three British-themed blockbuster movies that enjoyed great success in cinemas. The series continues on Thursday, February 9, 2023, when Rocketman comes to the big screen.
Fin & Tonic is offering a pre-fixe Valentine’s Day Dinner Menu for Tuesday, February 14! The cost is $100 per person ($140 with wine pairing). Reservations are filling up fast – call today!
The Tavern is offering a pre-fixe Valentine’s Day Five-Course Menu for Tuesday, February 14, from 5-9:30pm! The cost is $85 per person, with an optional wine pairing for $25 per person.
Italian love is in the air! Join Amedeo’s Ristorante as they present a specialized Valentine’s Day menu. Your significant other is bound to be dazzled by this spectacular menu! The cost is $80/person with an optional $20 wine pairing of Champagne, a choice of red or white, and a Port wine to round out dessert.
The Suffolk Humane Society will host the Paws for the Arts Gala on February 18, 2023, at the Hilton Garden Inn Suffolk Riverfront from 6:30pm to 10pm. The Gala features live and silent auctions that include food, art, jewelry, and many pet-related items. Paws for the Arts is one of the Humane Society’s largest fundraisers!
Join the Suffolk Center for Cultural Arts as they welcome Chris Michael on Saturday, February 18, 2023. Chris Michael is a celebrity entertainer who has performed his unique mix of beatboxing, sleight-of-hand, mind-reading, and even dangerous stunts for thousands of thrilled audiences all over the world.
The Suffolk Art League will hold its 39th Annual Antique Show and Sale at Kings Fork Middle School on February 25-26, 2023. Admission is $7 per person; the show is open Saturday, 10am-5pm, and Sunday, 12-4pm.
The Suffolk Center invites you to join them on Saturday evening, February 25, 2023 for their annual SCCA fundraiser, Cheers to 100 Years: A Gala To Remember, a celebration of Education, History, an Arts! Be a part of this unforgettable event!
The local numbers from the Real Estate Information Network (REIN, our local MLS) last month show a market that was aiming for Santa’s naughty list but, as you can see by this chart, it wasn’t so bad that it got coal for Christmas.
Last month (click HERE to read the entire update), we wrote: It is our educated guess that when November numbers come in they will feel even worse, but because the number of homes listed is still so low we don’t see the housing market crashing. Based on the numbers I would say our educated guess was pretty good.
The local housing market is slowing down and, according to a Fannie Mae study done this fall, homebuyer sentiment is at an all time low. That being said, our months’ supply of inventory is still close to historical lows at 1.42 months.
An average months’ supply is five to seven months and real estate, just like any other market, is all about supply and demand. Until the supply (number of homes listed for sale) increases we don’t expect to see a large drop in home prices.
Additionally, the interest rates for mortgages reversed the upward trend over the last few months. This chart shows the average for the 30 year mortgage rate throughout 2022:
As you can see, the rate was hitting 7% at the same time Fannie Mae was doing their homebuyer sentiment poll. The rates have decreased a bit. We predict that as buyers get used to the higher rates and tax return money starts rolling in, homebuyer sentiment will improve.
As 2022 comes to a close, we are thankful for your support over the last year and look forward to the future. In 2023 we will celebrate Cross Realty being in business for 70 years. If we can be of service, please give us a call (757-726-7653 for Lee, 757-434-9084 for Harry) or reply back to this email.
Welcome in the holidays with the 3rd Annual Suffolk Festival of Lights at Sleepy Hole Park! This FREE drive-through holiday light display runs for 1.2 miles and has over 35,000 bulbs-sure to put you in the festive spirit! The display is available November 25 through December 30, nightly, from 5:30 to 9:30pm.
Join us at the Suffolk Art Gallery for our Winter Exhibit, “The Magic Brush,” from the Blue Heron Chapter of the Sumi-e Society of America, a non-profit educational organization founded in 1988. The group is comprised of brushed ink and watercolor painters that seek to foster an appreciation of East Asian brush painting and Sumi-e techniques through workshops, lectures, and exhibitions.
Celebrate the New Year a little early with a countdown, balloon drop, crafts, snacks, dancing, and more! The party will start at 11am and we will ring in the New Year at noon! For more information, contact the Suffolk Public Library at 757-514-7323 or visit SuffolkPublicLibrary.com
Last month we wrote that the real estate market is cooling, but it isn’t really cold yet (click HERE if you want to read last month’s update). While I (Lee) am happy to report that the heat is now on in my entire house, those of us in real estate are starting to feel a chill. Here is the summary chart from Real Estate Information Network (REIN, our local MLS).
Both the number of settled sales and pending sales are down by roughly 1/3 when you compare October 2021 to October 2022, but the number of active listings is holding steady. Also, the median sales price for October was $310,000 – lower than it was in the spring, but the exact same as September 2022.
While the total number of homes that sold dropped, the current demand from buyers (which is lower than it was a year ago) is still greater than the number of homes for sale. In short, while some signs point to the real estate market cooling off, it certainly isn’t cold yet.
It is our educated guess that when November numbers come in they will feel even worse, but because the number of homes listed is still so low we don’t see the housing market crashing. In fact, if you are thinking about selling we can make a good case that you might want to go ahead and think about getting started. No one wants to move their Christmas tree, but the Navy is known to move people in December. You will certainly have fewer showings in December and January than you would in the spring, but they tend to be more serious, motivated buyers. Of course every situation is different, so give us a call (757-726-7653 for Lee, 757-434-9084 for Harry) or reply back to this email, and we will be happy to talk through your individual situation.
Welcome in the holidays with the 3rd Annual Suffolk Festival of Lights at Sleepy Hole Park! This FREE drive-through holiday light display runs for 1.2 miles and has over 35,000 bulbs-sure to put you in the festive spirit! The display is available November 25 through December 30, nightly, from 5:30 to 9:30pm.
Start your holiday shopping at the Annual Artisan Gift Fair! Join Suffolk Tourism for the annual outdoor holiday market in conjunction with the Suffolk Farmers’ Market, featuring 30+ vendors offering artisan-quality crafts, jewelry, soaps, fine art, candles, woodcrafts, crocheted items, jams and jellies, holiday decorations, wreaths, baked goods, seasonal produce, meats, and more.
Bring the kiddos to meet jolly ol’ St. Nick! Bring your cameras for photos with Santa, during the Annual Artisan Gift Fair, from 10:30am to 1:30pm. Holiday décor makes this the ideal place to snap a photo with Santa. Free and open to the public
Step into a Winter Wonderland at The Pinner House! Let’s continue the holiday festivities at the market! Enjoy an afternoon of holiday-inspired cheer as you create a beautiful gingerbread house. House structures, frosting, assorted decorative treats and more will be provided, along with expert guidance from world-class pastry chef, Susan from Baked Expectations.
Children can play games, win fun prizes, and have a free professional photo taken with Santa! For more information, contact Suffolk Parks & Recreation at 757.514.7250 or visit Suffolkva.us/Parks.
Join the Pinner House as they present their Annual Holiday Market! Features local artisans, Santa mini sessions, live music, plein air painters, gingerbread activities, specialty food and beverages… and more! As always, we’re continually inspired by the talented local artisans in Hampton Roads.
After a two weeklong negotiation, I (Lee) was successful in getting to a win-win situation with the other members of my household who prefer the thermostat to be set to freezing. We agreed to turn the heat on downstairs to deal with the cooler October temps, and leave it off upstairs since we haven’t hit truly cold weather. Our local real estate numbers, courtesy of Real Estate Information Network (REIN, our local MLS) are similar – while our market is cooling, it certainly isn’t cold yet.
The higher interest rates we talked about last month are still having a chilling effect on our local market (click HERE if you want to read last month’s update). Both pending (under contact) and closed (settled) sales are down, but so are active listings. The median sales price increased to $310,000 in the year over year numbers (comparing September 2021 to September 2022), but that is down from $315,000 last month. Here is the summary:
The all-important supply part of the equation, however, still puts has us in a seller’s market. The months supply of inventory (MSI) has been holding steady around 1.40 months. This shows that even though fewer houses are selling, there is still plenty of demand from buyers in our local market. This demand, especially when combined with our proven marketing and negotiation strategies, means that homes are still selling well. If you would like a free no obligation market analysis on your home, give us a call (757-726-7653 for Lee, 757-434-9084 for Harry) or reply back to this email.
Bring your little goblins and ghouls to the parking lot behind the Courthouse (on N. Commerce Street) on Saturday, October 29, 2022, for Touch a Truck & Trick or Treat! The event begins at 11am and ends at 2pm, rain or shine. Enjoy food, candy, games, trucks, and more!
The Suffolk Division of Tourism wants to give you the fright of your life as they present a series of classic horror films at the Suffolk Center for Cultural Arts. On Friday, October 28, 2022, join us for “The Ring,” and find out why Samara wants you to answer the phone.
Victorian Suffolk: Dying To Be There, A Guided Discovery of Cedar Hill Cemetery
This 75-minute walking tour explores the hidden meanings buried in Suffolk’s Historic Cedar Hill Cemetery. The tour will feature Victorian-era symbolism, burial practices, funerary industries, and mourning rituals. This intriguing and educational excursion will highlight how the residents of Suffolk both lived and died in the 19th century.
Downtown Suffolk has a SPOOKY event for you, We will be welcoming all GHOSTS, WITCHES, and GOBLINS too, On HALLOWEEN Eve, we hope you will come, To have some “pre-HALLOWEEN” trick-or-treat fun. Downtown businesses will be handing out treats, Some will be sour, but most will be sweet.
Join the Suffolk Center for Cultural Arts as they welcome Chris Michael on Saturday, October 29, 2022. Chris Michael is a celebrity entertainer who has performed his unique mix of beatboxing, sleight-of-hand, mind-reading, and even dangerous stunts for thousands of thrilled audiences all over the world.
A hair-raising encounter with the spirited side of Suffolk. Follow a costumed guide through the shadows of historic Main Street discovering stories, legends and “unexplained occurrences” by lantern light. Tales of unsolved mysteries and unresolved affairs abound throughout Suffolk’s historically hip Ghost Walk. Reservations required. $10 adults; $8 seniors (60+), military, and children 9-12.
Numbers are going up and down in our local market! Interest rates, days on the market, year over year median sale price, and months supply of inventory are all up while active listings, year over year pending and settled sales, and median sales price from May 2022 to August 2022 are all down. What does this mean for our market? Let’s start with a chart of the year over year August numbers from Real Estate Information Network (REIN, our local MLS) to visualize the data:
Judging by the chart, you would think we are in a seller’s market that is heating up but that isn’t necessarily the case. In May 2022 the median sales price was $328,795 and it went down to $315,900 in August 2022. That is a difference of about 4%. Keep in mind that most national studies over the years show that homes sell for a couple of percent more in the spring than other times, so we shouldn’t put too much stock in the change over the last couple of months.
The mortgage rates have made a major jump, almost doubling within the last year. Nine months ago, home buyers could get a 30 year loan for around 3% and now the average is around 6%, greatly reducing buying power. For example, if a buyer was financing a $250,000 home at 3% a year ago, their principle and interest payment would be about $1,050 a month. At a 6% rate, that same $250,000 loan will cost a buyer about $1,500 a month, or if the buyer wanted a payment of $1,050 they would only be able to get a loan for $175,000. The interest rates will continue to have a huge impact on buying power and exert a major influence on our local real estate market.
Last month we wrote that the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) is the best way to tell the direction of our local market. (Click HERE if you want to read what we wrote last month). That number went up to 1.39 from 1.37 in July, and last year in August 2021 it was 1.41. Remember, economics say that an average market has a MSI of between 5 and 7 months.
While we do feel like the market is slowing some, we have a long way to go to get back to an average market. Most experts think interest rates will continue to rise so, if you are thinking about selling, this fall is a good time to put your house on the market. The demand from buyers is still high and the number of homes for sale is still low. If you would like a free, no-obligation market analysis on your home, give us a call (757-726-7653 for Lee, 757-434-9084 for Harry) or reply back to this email.
Lee and Harry
Last week Lee was the speaker for the downtown Suffolk Rotary Club meeting and gave a talk on our local real estate market. He managed to keep everyone in the room awake and would welcome the opportunity to speak to other groups! Lee can tailor the presentation to the interests of your group. If you are part of a group that would be interested, please reply back to this email or give Lee a call (757-726-7653).
What’s Happening in Suffolk
14th Annual Mutt Strut Festival
The 14th Annual Mutt Strut Festival will be held at Bennett’s Creek Park on Sunday, September 24, 2022, from 2-8pm, and will showcase exciting new pet-related activities and fun for the entire family, including dog agility courses, a frosty paws eating contest, children’s activities, a lure course, and a performance by fan favorite, Soul Intent.
Kick back at the Holland Ball Field and watch the 1992 classic movie, Ladybugs! Concessions will be available and the movie will begin promptly at 8:15pm. This event is free and open to the public, just be sure to bring a chair or a blanket to sit on.
n challenging times, honoring peace, and tranquility through art is the focus of this exhibit. Artists’ works will feature two-and three-dimensional pieces that project their visions of peacefulness, whether it be a bright and cheerful landscape, a colorful floral, or a portrait of someone in a tranquil pose.
Fall Exhibit: “I Have to Go: Landscapes and Dreamscapes” by Jenny Bonner and Katey Morrill
The Suffolk Art Gallery invites you to the Fall Exhibit, “I Have to Go: Landscapes and Dreamscapes” by Jenny Bonner and Katey Morrill. Through acrylic paint, mixed media, and photography, both artists describe space as a moment of place and a record of time.
Do you know what makes an agent successful? We do. Cross Realty welcomes queries from those who are interested in joining our award-winning team. Call Harry today at 757-434-9084 to schedule a confidential meeting.
Specializing in properties in South Hampton Roads, Virginia.
